Today is the one hundredth anniversary of the birth of American nuclear physicist Bernard Cohen. In Intermediate Physics for Medicine and Biology, Russ Hobbie and I discuss Cohen mainly in the context of his work on the risk of low levels of ionizing radiation and his opposition to the linear no threshold model. Today, I will examine another aspect of his work: his advocacy for nuclear power. In particular, I will review his 1990 book The Nuclear Energy Option: An Alternative for the 90s.
Why read a 35-year old book about a rapidly changing technology like energy? I admit, the book is in some ways obsolete. Cohen insists on using rems as his unit of radiation effective dose, rather than the more modern Sievert (Sv). He discusses the problem of greenhouse gases and global warming, although in a rather hypothetical way as just one of the many problems with burning fossil fuels. He was optimistic about the future of nuclear energy, but we know now that in the decades following the book’s publication nuclear power in the United States did not do well (the average age of our nuclear power plants is over 40 years). Yet other features of the book have withstood the test of time. As our world now faces the dire consequences of climate change, the option of nuclear energy is an urgent consideration. Should we reconsider nuclear power as an alternative to coal/oil/natural gas? I suspect Cohen would say yes.
In Chapter 4 of The Nuclear Energy Option Cohen writes
We have seen that we will need more power plants in the near future, and that fueling them with coal, oil, or gas leads to many serious health, environmental, economic, and political problems. From the technological points of view, the obvious way to avoid these problems is to use nuclear fuels. They cause no greenhouse effect, no acid rain, no pollution of the air with sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, or other dangerous chemicals, no oil spills, no strain on our economy from excessive imports, no dependence on unreliable foreign sources, no risk of military ventures. Nuclear power almost completely avoids all the problems associated with fossil fuels. It does have other impacts on our health and environment, which we will discuss in later chapters, but you will see that they are relatively minor.
He then compares the safety and economics of nuclear energy with other options, including solar and coal-powered plants for generating electricity. Some of the conclusions are surprising. For instance, you might think that energy conservation is always good (who roots for waste?). But Cohen writes
Another energy conservation strategy is to seal buildings more tightly to reduce the escape of heat, but this traps unhealthy materials like radon inside. Tightening buildings to reduce air leakage in accordance with government recommendations would give the average American an LLE [loss of life expectancy] of 20 days due to increased radon exposure, making conservation by far the most dangerous energy strategy from the standpoint of radiation exposure!
His Chapter 8 on Understanding Risk is a classic. He begins
One of the worst stumbling blocks in gaining widespread public acceptance of nuclear power is that the great majority of people do not understand and quantify the risks we face. Most of us think and act as though life is largely free of risk. We view taking risks as foolhardy, irrational, and assiduously to be avoided….
Unfortunately, life is not like that. Everything we do involves risk.
He then makes a catalog of risks, in which he converts risk to the average expected loss of life expectancy for each case. This LLE is really just a measure of probability. For instance, if getting a certain disease shortens your life by ten years, but there is only one chance out of a hundred of contracting that disease, it would correspond to an LLE of 0.1 years, or 36 days. In his catalog, the riskiest activity is living in poverty, which has an LLE of 3500 days (almost ten years). Smoking cigarettes results in an LLE of 2300 days. Being 30 pounds overweight is 900 days. Reducing the speed limit on our highways from 65 to 55 miles per hour would reduce traffic accidents and give us an extra 40 days. At the bottom of his list is living near a nuclear reactor, with a risk of only 0.4 days (less than ten hours). He makes a compelling case that nuclear power is extraordinarily safe.
Cohen summarizes these risks in a classic figure, shown below.
Our poor risk perception causes us (and our government) to spend money foolishly. He translates societies efforts to reduce risk into the cost in dollars to save one life.
The $2.5 billion we spend to save a single life in making nuclear power safer could save many thousands of lives if spent on radon programs, cancer screening, or transportation safety. This means that many thousands of people are dying unnecessarily every year because we are spending this money in the wrong way.
He concludes
The failure of the American public to understand and quantify risk must rate as one of the most serious and tragic problems for our nation.
I agree.
Cohen believes that Americans have a warped view of the risk of nuclear energy.
The public has become irrational over fear of radiation. Its understanding of radiation dangers has virtually lost all contact with the actual dangers as understood by scientists.
Apparently conspiracy theories are a problem we face not only today but also decades ago, when the scientific establishment was accused of hiding the “truth” about radiation risks. Cohen counters
To believe that such highly reputable scientists conspired to practice deceit seems absurd, if for no other reason than that it would be easy to prove that they had done so and the consequences to their scientific careers would be devastating. All of them had such reputations that they could easily obtain a variety of excellent and well-paying academic positions independent of government or industry financing, so they were to vulnerable to economic pressures.
But above all, they are human beings who have chosen careers in a field dedicated to protection of the health of their fellow human beings; in fact, many of them are M.D.’s who have foregone financially lucrative careers in medical practice to become research scientists. To believe that nearly all of these scientists were somehow involved in a sinister plot to deceive the public indeed challenges the imagination.
To me, these words sound as if Cohen were talking now about vaccine hesitancy or climate change denial, rather than opposition to nuclear energy.
What do I think? I would love to have solar and wind supply all our energy needs. But until they can, I vote for increasing our use of nuclear energy over continuing to burn fossil fuels (especially coal). Global warming is already bad and getting worse. It is a dire threat to us all and to our future generations. We should not rule out nuclear energy as one way to address climate change.
Happy birthday, Bernard Cohen! I think if you had lived to be 100 years old, you would have found so many topics to write about today. How we need your rational approach to risk assessment.
Originally published at http://hobbieroth.blogspot.com.